¿Cuántos votos se necesitan para sentar un diputado?
Arriba el tiempo de definiciones en materia electoral. No hay mucho margen, no más que unos días, para dar por cerrado el capítulo de un congreso del Partido Justicialista que haga lugar a las minorías en el marco de una interna. Y en poco más de 20 días se terminará de resolver si hay elecciones desdobladas o no en la provincia de Entre Ríos, lo que modifica perspectivas y plazos para ordenar una propuesta electoral.
Definiciones inminentes, especulaciones mientras tanto. Entre las fuerzas de izquierda y de derecha, fuerzas con menos caudal electoral, es habitual centrar la estrategia de elecciones entrerrianas en el desafío de llegar a un piso de votos tal que permita entrar con un dirigente en la Cámara de Diputados.
Pero además, si en el peronismo las reglas de juego siguen siendo que el que gana se queda con todo, porque no hay inclusión de minorías en la carta orgánica, las especulaciones también podrían rondar en las fuerzas del oficialismo. ¿Conviene o no ir por afuera? ¿Y si por afuera se accede a una banca, dos, cuatro bancas en la Cámara de Diputados, que el proceso de internas en el justicialismo no otorga? Es la especulación que se hizo carne en varias oportunidades en la historia reciente del peronismo. El oficialismo emanado del PJ ha tenido bancadas numerosas, más numerosas que las que la votación le dio, con la mera anexión de los disidentes al otro día de la elección.
Las especulaciones están a la orden del día, todas en torno a una pregunta: ¿Cuántos votos hacen falta para sentar un diputado provincial? El método de distribución de las bancas en Entre Ríos hace que haya variables distintas interviniendo en el número final, como la cantidad de votos en blanco o la preeminencia de terceras y cuartas fuerzas. De todos modos, un repaso por los comicios de 2011, 2015, 2019 permite estimar un promedio del piso de votos requerido.
Un método
La forma para distribuir las bancas es la “regla de cuocientes” (escrito así en la Ley Electoral Nº 2988) o cocientes.
Tras el escrutinio,
1) se suman los votos positivos (a las distintas fuerzas políticas).
2) con los votos en blanco.
3) Al resultado se lo divide por las bancas en juego, un total de 34 desde la reforma de la Constitución de 2008.
4) El cociente será el piso de votos mínimo (“cuociente electoral”) para que una fuerza tenga “derecho a representación”.
Se despeja a las fuerzas que alcanzan ese piso. Se suma el total de votos obtenidos por esos partidos con “derecho a representación” y ese número se divide por las 34 bancas a repartir. Surge un nuevo cuociente del que emanará el número de lugares para cada partido.
Se divide la cantidad de votos de cada partido por el nuevo cuociente. Surge allí el número de bancas que le corresponde a cada uno. Si no alcanzaran a repartirse las 34 bancas, las sobrantes se otorgarán a las fuerzas que tengan mayor resto.
En los casos en que el partido que gana no obtenga por sus votos la mayoría absoluta de bancas que le otorga la Constitución, se asignan 18 bancas a esa fuerza. Y se suman los votos de las “fuerzas de la minoría” con derecho a representación, se divide ese número por las bancas restantes (16), para obtener un “cuociente de las minorías” que permita aplicar el mismo método para asignar los puestos que quedan.
Entre 22 y 25 mil votos
Se puede hacer una estimación de los votos requeridos para que un partido ingrese a la distribución de bancas en función de repasar los últimos contextos electorales, que mostraron, en algunos casos, la integración de hasta cuatro fuerzas, en otros una altísima polaridad que ubicó a sólo dos partidos en la Cámara baja.
En 2011, por caso, fueron cuatro coaliciones las que terminaron por integrar el cuerpo legislativo. El piso de votos para ingresar en la distribución de bancas fue de 22.167, número surgido de sumar los votos positivos, más los blancos y dividirlos por los 34 puestos en juego.
Así, el peronismo que proponía la reelección de Sergio Urribarri obtuvo 19 bancas. La segunda fuerza fue el Frente Progresista Cívico y Social, una coalición que tenía por columna vertebral al radicalismo, en alianza con la centroizquierda del socialismo. Coló 7 diputados con la boleta que llevó a Atilio Benedetti para la Gobernación. La fractura del peronismo la expresó Jorge Busti que había abandonado las filas del PJ tras el conflicto del campo que dividió aguas en el oficialismo. El exgobernador fue candidato por el Frente Entrerriano Federal y logró ubicar seis diputados en la Cámara baja que no demoraron en alinearse con el oficialismo. El GEN estaba entonces en poder de la exdiputada radical Ana D’Angelo que encabezó una propuesta para la provincia y alcanzó dos bancas.
En 2015 fue electo Gustavo Bordet en un resultado ajustado contra la coalición UCR-PRO (Cambiemos se llamaba entonces) que postuló a Alfredo De Angeli para la Gobernación. La fractura peronista persistía complicando las cosas para el oficialismo, aunque también se afirmaba que esa fractura iba en desmedro de la coalición de Cambiemos. Una fórmula encabezada por Adrián Fuertes, secundado por Jorge Busti, terció en esa elección con la marca que a nivel nacional motorizaba Sergio Massa.
El piso de votos para ingresar en la distribución de bancas trepó a 25.502. Por su caudal en las urnas, al PJ le tocaban solo 14 puestos pero al garantizar la Constitución la mayoría absoluta al partido gobernante se asignaron 18 bancas y las otras 16 se distribuyeron del siguiente modo: 12 para Cambiemos y 4 para UNA de Fuertes y Busti.
En 2019, para la reelección de Bordet, no hubo espacio para las terceras fuerzas. El piso de votos para el “derecho a la representación” fue 24.638 y la distribución de bancas fue del siguiente modo: 20 bancas para el peronismo (Frente Creer Entre Ríos) y 14 diputados para Juntos por el Cambio.
Mapa 2021
Se repite con acierto que las elecciones legislativas tienen sus características particulares, que las fuerzas minoritarias cobran un alcance inusitado, que no es comparable con una elección de presidente, gobernador, intendente.
En efecto, el resultado fue bien distinto al que suele mostrar el tablero político entrerriano. De todos modos, sirve para medir la foto que dejó la última elección, poner en número, en cantidad de diputados, por este mismo método de cuocientes, el alcance de las fuerzas políticas que disputaron la elección a legisladores nacionales en 2021.
Si hubiera habido distribución de bancas en la Legislatura, y con el caudal de participación que hubo, el piso de votos para tener un diputado hubiera sido de 23.666.
La partición de 34 bancas, entre las distintas fuerzas, hubiera sido del siguiente modo:
- Juntos por el Cambio, 19 bancas
- Frente Creer Entre Ríos, 11 bancas
- Frente NOS de Miriam Muller, alineada con Javier Milei, 2 bancas
- MST, Nueva Izquierda, en el FIT-Unidad, 1 diputado
- La fuerza, por fuera de la UCR, que encabezó Lucía Varisco, 1 banca.
Fuente: Página Política
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